If the people don't get us, the climate will!!!

Below is an article from Associated press writer NOAKI SCHWARTZ

LOS ANGELES - California is defined by its scenery, from the mountains that enchanted John Muir to the wine country and beaches that define its culture around the world.

But as scientists try to forecast how global warming might affect the nation's most geographically diverse state, they envision a landscape that could look quite different by the end of this century, if not sooner.

Where celebrities, surfers and wannabes mingle on Malibu's world-famous beaches, there may be only sea walls defending fading mansions from the encroaching Pacific. In Northern California, tourists could have to drive farther north or to the cool edge of the Pacific to find what is left of the region's signature wine country.

Abandoned ski lifts might dangle above snowless trails more suitable for mountain biking even during much of the winter. In the deserts, Joshua trees that once extended their tangled, shaggy arms into the sky by the thousands may have all but disappeared.

"We need to be attentive to the fact that changes are going to occur, whether it's sea level rising or increased temperatures, droughts and potentially increased fires," said Lisa Sloan, a scientist who directs the Climate Change and Impacts Laboratory at the University of California, Santa Cruz. "These things are going to be happening."

Among the earliest and most noticeable casualties is expected to be California's ski season.

Snow is expected to fall for a shorter period and melt more quickly. That could shorten the ski season by a month even in wetter areas and perhaps end it in others.

Whether from short-term drought or long-term changes, the ski season already has begun to shrivel in Southern California, ringed by mountain ranges that cradle several winter resorts.

"There's always plenty of snow, but you may just have to go out of state for it," said Rinda Wohlwend, 62, who belongs to two ski clubs in Southern California. "I'm a very avid tennis player, so I'd probably play more tennis."

Because California has myriad microclimates, covering an area a third larger than Italy, predicting what will happen by the end of the century is a challenge.

But through a series of interviews with scientists who are studying the phenomenon, a general description of the state's future emerges.

By the end of the century, temperatures are predicted to increase by 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit statewide. That could translate into even less rainfall across the southern half of the state, already under pressure from the increased frequency of wildfires and relentless population growth.

Small mammals, reptiles and colonies of wildflowers in the deserts east of Los Angeles are accustomed to periodic three-year dry spells. But they might not be able to withstand the 10-year drought cycles that could become commonplace as the planet warms.

Scientists already are considering relocating Joshua tree seedlings to areas where the plants, a hallmark of the high desert and namesake of a national park, might survive climate change.

"They could be wiped out of California depending on how quickly the change happens," said Cameron Barrows, who studies the effects of climate change for the Center for Conservation Biology in Riverside.

Farther north, where wet, cold winters are crucial for the water supply of the entire state, warmer temperatures will lead to more rain than snow in the Sierra Nevada and faster melting in the spring.

Because 35 percent of the state's water supply is stored annually in the Sierra snowpack, changes to that hydrologic system will lead to far-reaching consequences for California and its ever-growing population.

Some transformations already are apparent, from the Sierra high country to the great valleys that have made California the nation's top agricultural state.

The snow line is receding, as it is in many other alpine regions around the world. Throughout the 400-mile-long Sierra, trees are under stress, leading scientists to speculate that the mix of flora could change significantly as the climate warms. The death rate of fir and pine trees has accelerated over the past two decades.

In the central and southern Sierra, the giant sequoias that are among the biggest living things on Earth might be imperiled.

"I suspect as things get warmer, we'll start seeing sequoias just die on their feet where their foliage turns brown," said Nate Stephenson, a U.S. Geological Survey ecologist who is studying the effects of climate change in the Sierra Nevada. "Even if they don't die of drought stress, just think of the wildfires. If you dry out that vegetation, they're going to be so much more flammable."

Changes in the mountain snowpack could lead to expensive water disputes between cities and farmers. Without consistent water from rivers draining the melting snow, farmers in the Central and Salinas valleys could lose as much as a quarter of their water supply.

Any drastic changes to the state's $30 billion agriculture industry would have national implications, since California's fertile valleys provide half the country's fresh fruits, nuts and vegetables, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists' study.

"Obviously, it's going to mean that choices are going to be made about who's going to get the water," said Brian Nowicki, a biologist with the Center for Biological Diversity in Tucson, Ariz.

Among the biggest unknowns is what will happen along California's coast as the world's ice sheets and glaciers melt. One scenario suggests the sea level could rise by more than 20 feet.

Will the rising sea swamp the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, the nation's busiest harbor complex, turning them into a series of saltwater lakes? Will funky Ocean Beach, an island of liberalism in conservative San Diego County, become, literally, its own island?

Among the more sobering projections is what is in store for marine life.

The upwelling season, the time when nutrient-rich water is brought from the ocean's depths to the surface, nourishes one of the world's richest marine environments.

That period, from late spring until early fall, is expected to become weaker earlier in the season and more intense later. Upwelling along the Southern California coast will become weaker overall.

As a result, sea lions, blue whales and other marine mammals that follow these systems up and down the coast are expected to decline.

The changing sea will present trouble for much of the state's land-dwelling population, too. A sea level rise of 3 to 6 feet would inundate the airports in San Francisco and Oakland. Many of the state's beaches would shrink.

"If you raise sea level by a foot, you push a cliff back 100 feet," said Jeff Severinghaus, professor of geosciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego. "There will be a lot of houses that will fall into the ocean."

Tanks in Place

Here is the 1100 liter storage tank siting atop the two level base at the house of Doña Petra. All five tanks are at the houses now. This weekend we will begin to attach the canal and canal supports to the houses.

There But for Fortune

t is a little funny and kind of cute how the little grandmas are competing for who is going to feed me. Of the five rainwater harvesting systems I am building, three are at houses of single grandmothers taking care of children, or grandchildren, or both. They all seem to take turns feeding me and I sometimes have to tell one that I can't eat at her house because I am eating at one of the other ladies.

The house below belongs to Doña Petra. The outside consists of the last cut scrap wood that comes from cutting a tree into boards. The semicircular rough cut pieces. The floor is some kind of hard packed earth and stone combination. The blue interior wall covering is a kind of plastic wrap material. The brown wall coverings are simply cardboard boxes folded flat. Her house makes the double-wide trailer I am going to be living in in Boonville look like a Tuscan villa by comparison

Storage Tank Bases

The above picture shows a support base for the HDPE storage tank of the domestic rainwater harvesting system. The base consists of concrete cinder blocks arranged in a 1 meter by 1 meter square, with a reinforcing row down the middle. The two level base (this one will actually end up having three levels) interlocks the cinder blocks along the perimeter, however the center reinforcement, while being overlapped within its two levels, does not overlap any of the blocks on the outside square. The square and the reinforcing row are only connected by cement mortar. The base will be filled in with sand in order to provide a completely solid foundation for the wooden boards that the tank will sit directly upon. The four, 25 x 100 cm, boards will be coated will oil to make them more water repellent.

The bases have taken a bit longer to construct than I had anticipated. I have been careful to try and make the ground beneath very compact and level. I have tried to make sure that each cinder block is level to both itself, and all the other blocks around it. Since when full of water, the 1,100 liter tank will weigh almost as much as a Honda Civic (2400 lbs), I want to make sure that the weight is well distributed. This should not be a problem on a 1 sq m base if the weight is distributed evenly, as the pressure of a full tank would only be 1.53 lbs/sq in (for reference atmospheric pressure is 14.7 lbs/sq in). However if the ground under the base is not firm and solid and or if some of the concrete blocks don't support their share of the weight the pressure on certain points of the base could end up being many times higher and potentially over time lead to a failure.

I Love Stupid Criminals

A week ago I got my backpack stolen, and in it was most of my important stuff; all of my project designs. notes, camera, some money, etc. The thief didn't get my wallet or passport, as I keep those on my person at all times even when I am sleeping.

At about 2;30 in the morning on Dec 19th this guy comes into the hostel and takes the bed next to me. The reason I was awake to notice him was that there were a new zealand guy and a Germany girl having sex in one of the beds across the dorm. While it was annoying, it was pretty funny hearing this German woman yelling out "Fuck me, Fuck me Sam" in a funny English accent and then spent the next hour or so asking Sam why he didn't want to kiss her anymore. In any event when I got up in the morning a little after seven, I was a bit tired and out of it. I took my backpack out of my locker to get a few things and instead of putting it back in my locker I set it on the corner of my bed. I figured that it wasn't going to walk away in the 30-45 minutes I was out of the room. In any event when I came back to the room both the new guy and the backpack were gone.

However unlike most thievery cases like this there was a glimmer of hope. See, this drugy thief is known throughout the hostel community, and nobody likes him. He tries to intimidate people and often times skips out on his bill, presumably if he can't find anything to steal. So the owner at my hostel started calling around the other hostels to see if the the guy showed up. We found out that after being denied entrance to three other hostels that night, he eventually got into the one I was staying at (apparently my hostel didn't know who he was).

You know what I am tired of telling this story, so. The guy never left town, I got a tip where he was staying, went there found my camera, went into the room he was staying found most of the rest of my stuff. I began packing up my stuff and all of my stuff when he got back. The hostel owner started talking to him, and came out of room and angrily told him he stole my stuff, the guy then left and ran away, I went outside and thought about chasing him but, thought that the site of a gringo beating a Mexican with a broom stick, even though he stole from me might get me arrested or sent back to the states. I have work to finish so I let him and figured I should be thankful I got back all I did.

talk about a merry Christmas.

The Drains

Here is a look and the wash basin drains. They are L shaped HDPE pipeing with a PVC elbowforming the joint. After they are put in place, cement is used to fill in the hole at the back of thebasin (1st picture). Also, the part of the drain pipe that fits into the wash basin hole is coveredwith metal meash to keep any big objects from clogging the pipe (2nd picture). I formed a reverse cone in the basin's opening so that when cemented in place the mesh conered pipe would be very difficult to push out through the bottom of the basin's hole.

6 out of 8 in place

When I finished work today we had 6 out of the 8 wash basins are in place and secured. The whole thing is starting to come together. The two sides are different, with different sized wash basins, different heights, and different means ofconstruction. Building the two sides differently was not part of the initial plan, however during construction one of masons came up with a good idea. He sugested that instead of closing off all four sides of the wash bank, leave one side open and poor a concrete slab on top to act as the folding stations and support for the wash basins themselves (I know my explanation is not the best but I think the pictures show what I am talking about fairly well). The guy said this was easier and it would save time and materials by not having to have to close off the front side, or build an internal support colum for each was basin. I liked his idea but was not sure whether it would actually save much in the way in time or materials. It certainly would not be worse then the way I had designed it and there was a good chance it would be better, so I said lets do it.

Apllying this idea to the other bank would have been less advantages as the bricks for all four sides had already been laid. It was talked about removing the front side and then replicating the other but this seemed like more work than it was worth. Furthermore, since this is a pilot project I thought it would be good to have two styles of wash banks (assuming both function well) to demonstarte two different options for the same idea.

Tomorrow I hope to cement the drain pipes in place and do the finishing work on the side with the smaller wash basins

A small wash basin and its coresponding side table. The idea with the table is to provide the women with a space to place their clothes, soap, brushes, etc.

This picture gives a good view of both the small wash basins on the near side, and the large wash basins on the far side.

I Have Hit a Wall

I have hit a wall of sorts. The last few days I have been real frustrated. Not because of any specific instances just due to the whole situation. In order to clear my head I basically took the weekend off. I did buy the materials and construct the drains for one side of the wash sation, and I finished the design for the RWH systems that I will build on the individual houses, but I didn't go out to the community. I often feel like the blind leading the blind when I am working out there, or maybe more appropriately the blind leading the blind who are hallucinating into the idea that they can actually see.

The work down here, the whole situation down here, is a lot harder than I thought it would be. I guess if I had looked at this situation more logically and with a bit more realism I probably would have realized how much harder it was going to be. However, if I had done that I may not have come. If I looked at all things this way I probably wouldn't have done half the things I have done in my life. I think the fact that I have done the things I have, and more or less gotten through them no worse off than I was before, allowed to say; hey I can come down here, teach myself what I need to know, handle the Mexican way of doing things, do it all myself (well maybe not all; thanks Papa), be alone, and not lose it. I feel like I started a job that is all about "on the job training", and yet I have no one to train me!!!

Well, I got myself into this mess (so to speak), and I can't blame anyone else for how things are (that's not entirely true, but I won't go there right now), so the only thing to do is get a good nights sleep and get back at it tomorrow. It has gotten to the point where simply completing what I have started has become the overall goal, the outcome is secondary. This may sound strange but that's all I can focus on and handle right now.

Only 10 days til Christmas, Wow.

ECOSUR Rainwater Harvesting System

If you look closely in the left hand portion of the picture you can see the first water transfer canals in place

Intial construction of the RWH systems's cistern


The ECOSUR campus has begun its own Rainwater Harvesting System. The system is designed to take the water falls on three of the campus buildings and then channel that water to a below ground cistern. Water from this cistern is then made potable through a sand and activated Carbon filter. ECOSUR wants to ultimately become self sufficient in meeting its water needs. One reason for this desire for independence is that SAPAM (the local water utility) is unreliable with its water service, a problem that is likely to become even more pronounced as San Cristóbal's growing population puts even more strain on the areas water resources. The other is that ECOSUR wants to be a model in responsible environmental resource management. The university's primary focus is ecological sciences, mainly dealing with forestry and water resource concerns. The professor I have worked with, Jesus Carmona, would like ECOSUR to be an example of how a institution, any institution of some size, can better use natural resources and interact with the environment in a more positive way.

Now I don't think the design that our group gave to ECOSUR was a primary force in influencing ECOSUR's system decisions. However I hope, and so think to some degree, our RWH system design and ideas gave then things to think about and helped them to ultimately form the design that they are currently building.

Canal supports get attached

Yesterday I attached the canal supports. It took a bit of time to hang both sides. It was awkward trying to position the supports given the cramped space and the orientation of the ladders. I am also a bit of an anal perfectionist, and so having canals that simply flowed in the correct direction wasn't enough, I wanted them to flow in the correct direction with the smallest amount of slope. In the end I think we had an adequate compromise of time spent and quality of the end result.

Wash Basins almost done

I have had a long past few days, but I did get some help from a couple of masons so a lot of progress was made. Yesterday and today were satisfying and frustrating at the same time. Satisfying because the bank of washbasins are nearing completion, and I can begin to visualize where everything is going to be and how it is going to look like.

However it can be very frustrating at times working with these people because while they are good at laying the bricks and making everything square and pretty, they have Little or no understanding of physics or chemistry. For example, the mason was not going to overlap bricks from perpendicular sections of the wash station bank. This would mean that a rotational force (torque) applied to one area would only be resisted by that one section. If the blocks are overlapped over perpendicular junctions then a rotational force applied to one area is transmitted throughout the entire structure. If a force is trying to push one part over it is therefor trying to lift another one up into the air. The blocks themselves would break long before they began to lift off the slab.

Another frustration deals with the use of cement mortar. Cement mortar is stronger the less water is used and the quicker it is applied. Ideally just enough water should be added to the mix to make the mortar workable and it should be used within a half hour, to at most an hour, after mixing for maximum strength. Here, the guys just mix up a whole batch of mortar, enough for the whole day and then just let it sit in the sun. By mid day the stuff has gotten really hard as it is already thoroughly hydrated. Adding more water helps to break up this hydrated crystalline structure making the mortar workable again, but by breaking up these crystalline hydrates you are actually destroying many of the very structures that give the mortar its biding properties and strength (see picture below).

Since we are not building a house or a legitimate building, I wasn't too concerned but I guess s good way of describing the difference between them and me is that if I were building something that needed to look pretty I would let them do it. But if I was building something that needed to be strong, I would do it myself.

Domestic RWH Systems

Below are pictures of the first three houses that I plan on constructing the rainwater harvesting systems. Once the EcoLavadero nears completion hopefully The group I am working with will decide on 2 or 3 more houses to put systems on. After examining each of the houses I think is is possible to replicate the water quality that is obtained with the first system built at Gabino's house.



These are two of the grand kids of Doña Rosita, whose house is behind all of the clothes in the third picture. A very common way for people to get water is to use one of the 14 community water spigots (14 spigots for 3000 people) to fill up 5 gallon plastic buckets, and then haul then back to the house. This was common until last week the Municipality turned off the communities water because they are squatters and a process of payment for this "service" has not been agreed upon yet. These kids were filling up little buckets in order to clean their little bicycles.

Wash Station Construction has Begun

Today I began laying the concrete bricks that will form the two banks of wash stations. For a number of reasons (the 300 bricks were delivered in the afternoon, more site prep that one would think, obnoxiously loud Swedish guys, Last minute design modification, and working solo), I didn't get that far before darkness required me to stop. Tomorrow however I think I will have some help in the morning; and guys with masonry experience. Oh, also, there is a New Zealand surfer dude, who is driving around Mexico in an VW van (sleeping in it too), who wants to come help tomorrow. He was working construction in LA before he starting his trip, so that is a plus.

My body is just plain done today. I think the combination of a bad nights sleep, all the biking I do, and all the heavy crap I hauled today (bricks, cement bags, buckets of mortar) took their toll. I am really looking forward to sleeping tonight, and I don't even think a pair of Swedish guys, hooking up with un-attractive women in the beds across from me will even keep awake!!!!

Catchment Canal Supports

Today I made all of the rainwater harvesting canal supports. It took a good while because the perfectionist in me wanted to make sure they all had the correct angle to best support the V-shaped canals when they are place in the support. I also drilled pilot holes for all of the screws as I didn't want any of the wood to split or be susceptible to splitting down the road. Due to the shape of the gutters this meant changing from drill bit to screw driver bit often in order to make sure that I always screwed into the pilot hole.

In the afternoon I bought and arranged for the deliver of 300 concrete blocks that I am going to use to build the first bank of wash stations. They will arrive tomorrow at noon (supposedly) and hopefully I can get a good start before darkness falls.

The 5 most Beautiful Motorcycles Ever

#1, Ducati 996

#2, 1947 Indian Chief

#3, BMW R60/2

#4, Brough Superior SS100

#5, MV Agusta F4 1000

I couldn't believe this

So, I don't know many women who would be willing to spend the day hauling buckets of concrete up a small hill, no matter what it was for. However I don't know of any woman who would haul buckets on concrete while simultaneously breast feed their baby. Look closely at the picture, this lady is actually doing both. Except for people who are literally insane or handicapped through no fault of their own, I have no sympathy for anybody in the US. There are not poor people in the US in absolute terms. Show me an American woman who has to breast feed her child while she works and then maybe I will show you some sympathy

On a personal note, if anyone reading this ever hears me complain sees me feeling sorry for myself, and I mean legitimately complain, about my lot in life, please slap me in the face, and keep slapping me until I come to my senses and realize that there is nothing that could happen to me that justifies me complaining about the hand I have been dealt.

Peace

Lab Results!!!!!!

On Monday I took two water sample from the domestic Rainwater Harvesting System I built in 5 de Marzo (Gabino's house). I only had the ECOSUR lab test for coliform bacteria, as I figured this would likely be the only real pollutant of concern. I felt there isn't much of a chance for metals or other pollutants being present in the rain water in San Cristobal, or for those types of pollutants to be picked up via the transport system.
The results are as follows (note MPN stands for Most Probable Number).

Gabino's HDPE Tank
total coliforms: 2.55 MPN/100 ml
95% confidence interval: 0.5 - MPN - 8 (per 100 ml)

fecal coliforms: 1 MPN/100 ml
95% confidence interval: 0 - MPN - 3.7 (per 100 ml)

These results are nearly equivalent to the drinking water standards in the US. The water from this system is not only safe for healthy adults to drink, but it is also safe for young kids and the elderly.


Don Carlos's Cistern
For comparison I also sampled a cistern from another house. Don Carlos, is the man who is storing all of the materials for the EcoLavadero. He lets his rainwater run off the roof of his house and directs it into the ground next to his underground cistern. The water then enters the cistern from the side at a depth of a couple of meters. His idea is to use the ground to filter the water but without knowing the soil profile and the path the water actually takes it is hard to know how much filtration is possible. Furthermore rainwater does not usually need any filtering. It gets contaminated in the transportation process.

total coliforms: 297 MPN/100 ml
95% confidence interval: 204 - MPN -416 (per 100 ml)

fecal coliforms: 12.4 MPN/100 ml
95% confidence interval: 4.85 - MPN - 30.15 (per 100 ml)